Spread: FC Bayern München (-3.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 1. FC Magdeburg (67%) · 1. FC Magdeburg at 64¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 28

FC Bayern München36¢1. FC Magdeburg64¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

1. FC Magdeburg

Consensus Traders

1. FC Magdeburg 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

-$398.19

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 64¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Neutral1. FC Magdeburg at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1. FC Magdeburg

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Bayern München36%

1. FC Magdeburg64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

1. FC Magdeburg8 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares16,329

Combined PnL-$804.45

FC Bayern München4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,328

Combined PnL+$406.26

1. FC Magdeburg — 67%FC Bayern München — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 43.6¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	-$7.01	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ FC Bayern München leg	FC Bayern Münchenavg 43.6¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$212.96
└ 1. FC Magdeburg leg	1. FC Magdeburgavg 54.2¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$205.95
UP UpTheBlues	1. FC Magdeburgavg 56.8¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$0.39	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$195	51% 636-616 (1252)
RN1	1. FC Magdeburgavg 56.2¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$376.78	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 46.8¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$219.92	65% 1668-897 (2565)
OM omnibus-076daa	1. FC Magdeburgavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$185.09	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	1. FC Magdeburgavg 54¢	$1.2K	$982.75	-$183.59	49% 558-581 (1139)
HRTrading	1. FC Magdeburgavg 57.5¢	$208.57	$203.95	-$4.62	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
RA rabbitfoot1	1. FC Magdeburgavg 51¢	$224.39	$200.19	-$24.2	53% 1104-975 (2079)
poshposhCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 43.8¢	$204.18	$193.42	-$10.76	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
VeryLucky888	1. FC Magdeburgavg 55.5¢	$363.41	$91	-$29.61	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 37¢	$4.44	$6.54	+$2.1	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	1. FC Magdeburgavg 55¢	$5.5	$4.55	-$0.95	51% 1291-1227 (2518)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$6,989.85

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$7.01

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

FC Bayern München$4,389.2443.6¢-$212.96

1. FC Magdeburg$2,600.6154.2¢+$205.95

UpTheBlues

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$4,500.62

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$0.39

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$195

Record

51%

636-616 (1252)

RN1

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$1,976.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$376.78

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

darkumbreon88CTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$1,333.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$219.92

Record

65%

1668-897 (2565)

omnibus-076daa

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$1,306.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$185.09

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$1,166.34

Value

$982.75

PnL

-$183.59

Record

49%

558-581 (1139)

HRTrading

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$208.57

Value

$203.95

PnL

-$4.62

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

rabbitfoot1

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$224.39

Value

$200.19

PnL

-$24.2

Record

53%

1104-975 (2079)

poshposhCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$204.18

Value

$193.42

PnL

-$10.76

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

VeryLucky888

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$363.41

Value

$91

PnL

-$29.61

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$4.44

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.95

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

Research grade

Neutral1. FC Magdeburg at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1. FC Magdeburg

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 1. FC Magdeburg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.