Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FC Bayern München (75%) · FC Bayern München at 59¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
FC Bayern München
4
FC Bayern München 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.6K
-$53.07
56.4¢ → 58.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Bayern München at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 63.8¢ | $6.0K | $6.7K | +$622.68 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ FC Bayern München leg | FC Bayern Münchenavg 63.8¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$334.44 | |
| └ 1. FC Magdeburg leg | 1. FC Magdeburgavg 35.2¢ | $2.5K | $3.0K | +$957.12 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | FC Bayern Münchenavg 57¢ | $550.11 | $468.08 | -$82.03 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 55¢ | $329.98 | $356.97 | +$27 | 56% 140-110 (250) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Bayern Münchenavg 63.3¢ | $32.9 | $34.25 | +$1.35 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | 1. FC Magdeburgavg 41.9¢ | $22.8 | $23.42 | +$0.62 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
Invested
$6,045.31
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$622.68
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
Invested
$550.11
Value
$468.08
PnL
-$82.03
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$329.98
Value
$356.97
PnL
+$27
Record
56%
140-110 (250)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.9
Value
$34.25
PnL
+$1.35
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$22.8
Value
$23.42
PnL
+$0.62
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.