Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Bayern München (78%) · FC Bayern München at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

FC Bayern München99¢1. FC Magdeburg1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Bayern München

Consensus Traders

FC Bayern München 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$314.94

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 98.5¢

+18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Bayern München at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Bayern München

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Bayern München99%

1. FC Magdeburg2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Bayern München7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,792

Combined PnL+$314

1. FC Magdeburg2 traders

Total Value$8.36

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.95

FC Bayern München — 78%1. FC Magdeburg — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Bayern Münchenavg 83.4¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$308.9	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
SN SnakeBall	FC Bayern Münchenavg 90¢	$148.05	$149.7	+$1.64	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
CA Cannae<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 79¢	$69.34	$72.26	+$2.91	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 83¢	$69.71	$68.03	-$2.1	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
HRTradingARB<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 76¢	$36.1	$42.07	+$5.97	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
└ 1. FC Magdeburg leg	1. FC Magdeburgavg 17.9¢	$15.76	$22	+$6.24
└ FC Bayern München leg	FC Bayern Münchenavg 76¢	$20.34	$20.07	-$0.27
RO Rocky31<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 81.5¢	$40	$41.72	+$1.72	73% 1485-544 (2029)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 79¢	$34.3	$35.17	+$0.87	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
FO foooool<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 90¢	$9	$9.05	+$0.05	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
RN1CTR<$100	1. FC Magdeburgavg 12¢	$6	$5	-$1	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
poshposhCTR<$100	1. FC Magdeburgavg 4¢	$1.42	$3.36	+$1.95	60% 9402-6388 (15790)

GoalLineGhost

FC Bayern München

Invested

$3,639.07

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$308.9

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

SnakeBall

FC Bayern München

Invested

$148.05

Value

$149.7

PnL

+$1.64

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Cannae<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$69.34

Value

$72.26

PnL

+$2.91

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$69.71

Value

$68.03

PnL

-$2.1

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

HRTradingARB<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$36.1

Value

$42.07

PnL

+$5.97

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Both legs:

1. FC Magdeburg$15.7617.9¢+$6.24

FC Bayern München$20.3476¢-$0.27

Rocky31<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$40

Value

$41.72

PnL

+$1.72

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

omnibus-076daa<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$34.3

Value

$35.17

PnL

+$0.87

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

foooool<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

RN1CTR<$100

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

poshposhCTR<$100

1. FC Magdeburg

Invested

$1.42

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$1.95

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Research grade

NeutralFC Bayern München at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

FC Bayern München

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Bayern München wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.