FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.1K
-$144.82
96.1¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 94¢ | $751.74 | $686.47 | -$65.27 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
ZX zxc368 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $394.39 | $394.58 | +$0.2 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.6¢ | $98.86 | $22.76 | -$76.09 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.7¢ | $6.1 | $2.65 | -$3.45 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $2.1 | $1.9 | -$0.2 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
Invested
$751.74
Value
$686.47
PnL
-$65.27
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$394.39
Value
$394.58
PnL
+$0.2
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$98.86
Value
$22.76
PnL
-$76.09
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$3.45
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.