Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: 1st Half O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.4K
$69.27
62.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 56.4¢ | $790.16 | $918.09 | +$127.93 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $857.36 | $857.79 | +$0.43 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 72.4¢ | $656.32 | $593.92 | -$62.41 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $22.5 | $24.56 | +$2.06 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 56.9¢ | $8.21 | $9.46 | +$1.25 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$790.16
Value
$918.09
PnL
+$127.93
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$857.36
Value
$857.79
PnL
+$0.43
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
RN1CTRInvested
$656.32
Value
$593.92
PnL
-$62.41
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
$24.56
PnL
+$2.06
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.21
Value
$9.46
PnL
+$1.25
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.