Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$13.3K
$39.41
95¢ → 94.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.5K | $9.6K | +$50 | 47% 2405-2688 (5093) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 95¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$8.05 | 53% 15741-13909 (29650) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$6.9 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 95¢ | $665 | $668.5 | +$3.5 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 95¢ | $155.81 | $148.99 | +$0.86 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
Invested
$9,500
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$50
Record
47%
2405-2688 (5093)
Invested
$1,668.11
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$8.05
Record
53%
15741-13909 (29650)
Invested
$1,310.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$6.9
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$665
Value
$668.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
VeryLucky888Invested
$155.81
Value
$148.99
PnL
+$0.86
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.