FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $363 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$362.94
-$51.25
50.5¢ → 100¢
+98% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 47¢ | $280.12 | $256.28 | -$23.84 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Yesavg 76.9¢ | $66.16 | $41.73 | -$24.43 | 64% 997-567 (1564) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $37.07 | $35.53 | -$1.53 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.8¢ | $10.97 | $10.25 | -$0.72 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $9.79 | $9.74 | -$0.05 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.08 | $9.4 | -$0.68 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
Invested
$280.12
Value
$256.28
PnL
-$23.84
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$66.16
Value
$41.73
PnL
-$24.43
Record
64%
997-567 (1564)
Invested
$37.07
Value
$35.53
PnL
-$1.53
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$10.25
PnL
-$0.72
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$9.79
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
RN1<$100Invested
$10.08
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0.68
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.