Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 92¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$8.6K
-$355.79
90.5¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 90.6¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$37.73 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 90.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$9.65 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
 aibabyCTR | Noavg 9.9¢ | $2.1K | $1.7K | -$410.21 | 53% 98-88 (186) |
 HRTrading | Yesavg 90¢ | $525.91 | $535.61 | +$9.7 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 92.5¢ | $532.09 | $529.23 | -$2.86 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 90.5¢ | $20.07 | $20.29 | +$0.21 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
Invested
$3,713.41
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$37.73
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$2,018.51
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$9.65
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
aibabyCTRInvested
$2,096.61
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$410.21
Record
53%
98-88 (186)
HRTradingInvested
$525.91
Value
$535.61
PnL
+$9.7
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$532.09
Value
$529.23
PnL
-$2.86
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$20.07
Value
$20.29
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.