Will Viborg FF win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 89¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
2 arb excluded
$4.6K
-$478.56
80.4¢ → 89¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 84¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$8.11 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 84.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$66.24 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 86¢ | $1.2K | $826.01 | -$402.43 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 42.7¢ | $616.13 | $378.43 | -$237.7 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 69¢ | $203.2 | $257.6 | +$54.4 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.7¢ | $412.93 | $120.83 | -$292.1 | |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Yesavg 62¢ | $291.26 | $267.77 | +$2.35 | 49% 167-174 (341) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $151.36 | $130.65 | -$20.71 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Noavg 44.7¢ | $183.35 | $69 | -$114.36 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.7¢ | $154.5 | $39.79 | -$114.71 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 87.4¢ | $28.85 | $29.21 | +$0.36 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $0.69 | $0.95 | +$0.27 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $0.59 | $0.68 | +$0.1 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
Invested
$1,577.96
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$8.11
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
RN1Invested
$1,361.44
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$66.24
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$1,228.44
Value
$826.01
PnL
-$402.43
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$616.13
Value
$378.43
PnL
-$237.7
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
Both legs:
Invested
$291.26
Value
$267.77
PnL
+$2.35
Record
49%
167-174 (341)
Invested
$151.36
Value
$130.65
PnL
-$20.71
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$183.35
Value
$69
PnL
-$114.36
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Both legs:
Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.27
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.59
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.