Viborg FF vs. AC Horsens: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.9K
$63.6
93¢ → 99.4¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 97.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$17.53 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 78.5¢ | $314 | $385.2 | +$71.2 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $37.13 | $45.35 | -$0.7 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 3¢ | $28.74 | $33.26 | +$4.52 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.8¢ | $6.48 | $12.6 | +$6.12 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
Invested
$1,474.28
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$17.53
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
0xheavy888Invested
$314
Value
$385.2
PnL
+$71.2
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$37.13
Value
$45.35
PnL
-$0.7
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$28.74
Value
$33.26
PnL
+$4.52
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$6.48
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$6.12
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.