Viborg FF vs. AC Horsens: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$280.5
80.3¢ → 94¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 86.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$125.21 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 15.6¢ | $298.97 | $373.6 | +$74.62 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 47.9¢ | $120.39 | $170.94 | +$50.55 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.9¢ | $74.92 | $117.3 | +$42.38 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21.2¢ | $45.47 | $53.64 | +$8.17 | |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 37¢ | $74 | $143 | +$69 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 34.5¢ | $22.7 | $38.12 | +$15.42 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $12.45 | $8.7 | -$3.75 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
Invested
$1,651.09
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$125.21
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$298.97
Value
$373.6
PnL
+$74.62
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$120.39
Value
$170.94
PnL
+$50.55
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$74
Value
$143
PnL
+$69
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$22.7
Value
$38.12
PnL
+$15.42
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.45
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$3.75
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.