Will AC Horsens win on 2026-11-01?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$12.9K
$33.15
96.8¢ → 99.4¢
+3% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $10.9K | $10.9K | -$0 | 93% 875-63 (938) |
 RN1 | Noavg 85¢ | $665.55 | $777.93 | +$112.36 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 92.2¢ | $415.81 | $338.18 | -$77.63 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 84¢ | $328.44 | $334.31 | +$5.87 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 85¢ | $287.38 | $331.55 | +$10.12 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84.8¢ | $154.26 | $136.43 | -$17.83 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $17.97 | $18.43 | +$0.35 | 53% 16115-14278 (30393) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $10.76 | $2.41 | +$0.19 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $1.4 | $1.3 | -$0.1 | 54% 6424-5410 (11834) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.27 | $1.1 | -$0.16 | 50% 33839-33425 (67264) |
Invested
$10,916.22
Value
$10.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
93%
875-63 (938)
RN1Invested
$665.55
Value
$777.93
PnL
+$112.36
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$415.81
Value
$338.18
PnL
-$77.63
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
oieshfn345Invested
$328.44
Value
$334.31
PnL
+$5.87
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
Invested
$287.38
Value
$331.55
PnL
+$10.12
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
Invested
$154.26
Value
$136.43
PnL
-$17.83
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$17.97
Value
$18.43
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
16115-14278 (30393)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.76
Value
$2.41
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
6424-5410 (11834)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
33839-33425 (67264)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.