Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Odense BK vs. Silkeborg IF: O/U 4.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$3.3K
-$119.97
81.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 81¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$56.03 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 81.8¢ | $1.2K | $961.13 | -$203.63 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
US User7429 | Overavg 90¢ | $314.58 | $347.79 | +$33.21 | 55% 8412-6766 (15178) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 80¢ | $160 | $155 | -$5 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $74.72 | $76.35 | +$1.62 | 76% 4143-1304 (5447) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $55.07 | $52.35 | -$1.02 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 22.9¢ | $29.11 | $29.22 | +$0.12 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $18 | $16.7 | -$1.3 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
Invested
$1,639.8
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$56.03
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
Invested
$1,164.76
Value
$961.13
PnL
-$203.63
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$314.58
Value
$347.79
PnL
+$33.21
Record
55%
8412-6766 (15178)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$160
Value
$155
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$74.72
Value
$76.35
PnL
+$1.62
Record
76%
4143-1304 (5447)
Invested
$55.07
Value
$52.35
PnL
-$1.02
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$29.11
Value
$29.22
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$18
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$1.3
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.