Odense BK vs. Silkeborg IF: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $784 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$783.78
-$311.76
72¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 73¢ | $532.89 | $365 | -$167.9 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 62.4¢ | $148.19 | $145.49 | -$2.7 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 60.6¢ | $294.92 | $143.49 | -$151.43 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $66.42 | $71.38 | +$4.96 | 74% 1680-593 (2273) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $38.92 | $41.42 | +$2.5 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $12.69 | $17 | +$2.81 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
RN1Invested
$532.89
Value
$365
PnL
-$167.9
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$148.19
Value
$145.49
PnL
-$2.7
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$294.92
Value
$143.49
PnL
-$151.43
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Invested
$66.42
Value
$71.38
PnL
+$4.96
Record
74%
1680-593 (2273)
Invested
$38.92
Value
$41.42
PnL
+$2.5
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.69
Value
$17
PnL
+$2.81
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.