Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Odense BK vs. Silkeborg IF: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 19¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.1K
-$285.22
37.6¢ → 18.5¢
-51% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 39.4¢ | $414 | $483 | +$69 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 36.4¢ | $778.22 | $395.64 | -$382.58 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 38.8¢ | $99.28 | $124.16 | +$24.88 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $88 | $101.2 | -$3.3 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $24.75 | $31.31 | +$6.56 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $1.17 | $1.38 | +$0.21 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$414
Value
$483
PnL
+$69
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$778.22
Value
$395.64
PnL
-$382.58
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$99.28
Value
$124.16
PnL
+$24.88
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$88
Value
$101.2
PnL
-$3.3
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$31.31
PnL
+$6.56
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.