Will Silkeborg IF win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$97.66
87.1¢ → 99.6¢
+14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 96.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$92.95 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $1.0K | $986.42 | -$23.66 | 57% 1814-1366 (3180) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.1¢ | $661.9 | $656.85 | +$13.07 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $366.31 | $329.57 | -$36.73 | |
 RN1 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $426.72 | $527.34 | -$11.76 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
FO foooool | Noavg 63.7¢ | $114.27 | $107.64 | -$6.63 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $38.06 | $46.73 | +$8.67 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49¢ | $16.16 | $24.42 | +$8.26 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $21.9 | $22.31 | +$0.41 | |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $29.04 | $42.98 | +$13.94 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $9.29 | $7.4 | +$0.08 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $5.18 | $5.14 | -$0.04 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $5.3 | $5 | -$0.3 | 58% 18782-13844 (32626) |
Invested
$2,055.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$92.95
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$1,028.21
Value
$986.42
PnL
-$23.66
Record
57%
1814-1366 (3180)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$426.72
Value
$527.34
PnL
-$11.76
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$114.27
Value
$107.64
PnL
-$6.63
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
Invested
$38.06
Value
$46.73
PnL
+$8.67
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.04
Value
$42.98
PnL
+$13.94
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.29
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
18782-13844 (32626)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.