Will Odense BK win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$212.89

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 99.6¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$884.98

Total Shares941

Combined PnL+$240.93

No4 traders

Total Value$84.94

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$28.05

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$125.4	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.5¢	$604.34	$980.34	+$376.01
└ No leg	Noavg 61.5¢	$833.8	$332.4	-$501.4
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 53¢	$290.41	$517.94	+$227.53	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 88.4¢	$160.08	$165.61	+$5.53	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 92¢	$147.2	$154.4	+$7.2	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$70.18	$73.81	+$3.63	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$51.71	$52.14	+$0.43	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.8¢	$26.77	$26.55	-$0.22
└ No leg	Noavg 58¢	$24.94	$25.58	+$0.64
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$31.91	$31.06	-$0.85	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 55.2¢	$14.45	$15.98	+$1.53	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$8.1	$7.8	-$0.3	58% 18782-13844 (32626)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.05	-$0.23	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$31.43	$0.28	-$31.15	59% 30673-21383 (52056)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,438.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$125.4

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

Yes$604.3446.5¢+$376.01

No$833.861.5¢-$501.4

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$290.41

Value

$517.94

PnL

+$227.53

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$160.08

Value

$165.61

PnL

+$5.53

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$147.2

Value

$154.4

PnL

+$7.2

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$70.18

Value

$73.81

PnL

+$3.63

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.71

Value

$52.14

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Both legs:

Invested

$31.91

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.45

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$1.53

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$31.43

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$31.15

Record

59%

30673-21383 (52056)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.