Will Odense BK vs. Silkeborg IF end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $371 held · ended Nov 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$371.49

Combined PnL

-$8.1

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 99¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$339.43

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$3.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$32.06

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$11.79

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 96¢	$282.24	$285.18	+$2.94	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 95¢	$43.89	$44.81	+$0.92	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$32.55	$20.34	-$12.21	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$9	$8.75	-$0.25	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 67.4¢	$5.66	$5.46	-$0.2	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.98	+$0.02	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.75	+$0.5	58% 18782-13844 (32626)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.05	$1.22	+$0.17	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$282.24

Value

$285.18

PnL

+$2.94

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$43.89

Value

$44.81

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.55

Value

$20.34

PnL

-$12.21

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.