FC Nordsjælland vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 62¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.8K
$352.57
55¢ → 61.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 53.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$145.91 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 56.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$52.12 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Overavg 41¢ | $635.8 | $930.44 | +$294.64 | 49% 258-268 (526) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 56.9¢ | $340.23 | $241.95 | -$69.29 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 56.8¢ | $180.65 | $187.75 | -$53.37 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 61.3¢ | $54.21 | $36.24 | -$17.97 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $1.1 | $1.62 | +$0.52 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$1,138.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$145.91
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$1,073.35
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$52.12
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$635.8
Value
$930.44
PnL
+$294.64
Record
49%
258-268 (526)
0xheavy888Invested
$340.23
Value
$241.95
PnL
-$69.29
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
VeryLucky888Invested
$180.65
Value
$187.75
PnL
-$53.37
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$54.21
Value
$36.24
PnL
-$17.97
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$0.52
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.