Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Nordsjælland vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 35¢ · $421 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
$421.1
$46.71
30.4¢ → 35¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 29.5¢ | $176.31 | $209.48 | +$33.17 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
KY Kyn008 | Overavg 63¢ | $126 | $135 | +$9 | 49% 258-268 (526) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 32.9¢ | $70.8 | $75.33 | +$4.53 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $1.28 | $1.3 | +$0.02 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$176.31
Value
$209.48
PnL
+$33.17
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$126
Value
$135
PnL
+$9
Record
49%
258-268 (526)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$70.8
Value
$75.33
PnL
+$4.53
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.