Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.0K
$248.67
90.5¢ → 98.8¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$58.24 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 RN1 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $984.53 | $1.1K | +$93.86 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.4¢ | $762.28 | $758.31 | -$3.97 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
FO foooool | Noavg 80.6¢ | $250.04 | $300.45 | +$50.41 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 71¢ | $187.88 | $245.91 | +$57.86 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $9.69 | +$0.99 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $11.63 | $2.92 | -$8.71 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$1,509.51
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$58.24
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
RN1Invested
$984.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$93.86
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$762.28
Value
$758.31
PnL
-$3.97
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$250.04
Value
$300.45
PnL
+$50.41
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
oieshfn345Invested
$187.88
Value
$245.91
PnL
+$57.86
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$0.99
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$11.63
Value
$2.92
PnL
-$8.71
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.