Will FC Nordsjælland vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.7K
$44.01
87.7¢ → 90¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $709.46 | $708.17 | -$1.29 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $655.2 | $680.4 | +$32.76 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $216.55 | $213.46 | -$3.09 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
FO foooool | Noavg 80¢ | $125 | $140.63 | +$15.63 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.