Will Lyngby BK win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 60¢ · $992 held · ended Oct 30

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$991.55

Combined PnL

$6.25

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 59.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$124.93

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$5.4

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.08

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.85

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$770.51	$569.15	-$201.36	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68¢	$521.44	$318.31	-$203.13
└ No leg	Noavg 58.1¢	$249.07	$250.85	+$1.78
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 45.9¢	$156.77	$159.32	+$2.55	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.9¢	$83.96	$108.88	+$24.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.5¢	$72.81	$50.43	-$22.38
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 57.6¢	$138.11	$120.06	-$18.04	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.6¢	$74.53	$75.7	+$1.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.5¢	$63.58	$44.37	-$19.21
poshposh<$100	Noavg 46¢	$69	$73.5	+$4.5	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
RN1<$100	Noavg 59¢	$43.17	$43.54	+$0.37	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$10	$10	+$0	67% 23273-11679 (34952)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.5¢	$4.63	$4.73	+$0.1	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 55¢	$4.77	$4.72	-$0.04	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$2.6	$3.35	+$0.75	58% 18584-13649 (32233)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$3.18	+$0.57	50% 33199-32726 (65925)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$770.51

Value

$569.15

PnL

-$201.36

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

Yes$521.4468¢-$203.13

No$249.0758.1¢+$1.78

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$156.77

Value

$159.32

PnL

+$2.55

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Both legs:

No$83.9645.9¢+$24.92

Yes$72.8158.5¢-$22.38

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$138.11

Value

$120.06

PnL

-$18.04

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

Both legs:

No$74.5357.6¢+$1.17

Yes$63.5859.5¢-$19.21

poshposh<$100

Invested

$69

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

RN1<$100

Invested

$43.17

Value

$43.54

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

23273-11679 (34952)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.