Democratic 2028 presidential odds dip to 50% by March 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $280 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$279.54
-$3.06
87¢ → 92¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UbuntuTrading | Noavg 86¢ | $156.51 | $151.76 | -$0.41 | 47% 1611-1838 (3449) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 88¢ | $102.01 | $101 | -$1.01 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $27.6 | $26.16 | -$1.44 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.26 | $0.4 | +$0.13 | — |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $1.83 | $0.22 | -$0.33 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
UbuntuTradingInvested
$156.51
Value
$151.76
PnL
-$0.41
Record
47%
1611-1838 (3449)
Invested
$102.01
Value
$101
PnL
-$1.01
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$27.6
Value
$26.16
PnL
-$1.44
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.13
Record
—
Invested
$1.83
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.33
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.