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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $802 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$802.39
$30.38
90.7¢ → 95.7¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 94¢ | $469.64 | $476.41 | +$6.77 | 53% 1098-980 (2078) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $148.41 | $161.48 | +$13.08 | 73% 2904-1056 (3960) |
 Dr.mett | Noavg 79¢ | $91.64 | $110.2 | +$18.91 | 86% 1394-233 (1627) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $43.13 | $44.03 | +$0.9 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $19.54 | $10.26 | -$9.27 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
Invested
$469.64
Value
$476.41
PnL
+$6.77
Record
53%
1098-980 (2078)
Tenebrus7Invested
$148.41
Value
$161.48
PnL
+$13.08
Record
73%
2904-1056 (3960)
Dr.mettInvested
$91.64
Value
$110.2
PnL
+$18.91
Record
86%
1394-233 (1627)
Invested
$43.13
Value
$44.03
PnL
+$0.9
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$19.54
Value
$10.26
PnL
-$9.27
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.