Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 40¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$75.61

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 39.5¢

-25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$831.73

Total Shares1,754

Combined PnL-$104.97

Yes4 traders

Total Value$447.53

Total Shares844

Combined PnL+$29.36

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 52.9¢	$805.52	$715.62	-$89.9	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 48.6¢	$392.85	$428.28	+$35.43	57% 1733-1295 (3028)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$67.34	$58.42	-$8.93	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$63.83	$57.69	-$6.14	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$19.63	$13.69	-$5.94	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$3.24	$2.91	-$0.33	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.65	+$0.2	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$805.52

Value

$715.62

PnL

-$89.9

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$392.85

Value

$428.28

PnL

+$35.43

Record

57%

1733-1295 (3028)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$67.34

Value

$58.42

PnL

-$8.93

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$63.83

Value

$57.69

PnL

-$6.14

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.63

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$5.94

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.33

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.