Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Zbrojovka Brno, while the market favors SK Sigma Olomouc (67%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: SK Sigma Olomouc (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FC Zbrojovka Brno (67%) · FC Zbrojovka Brno at 33¢ · $100 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FC Zbrojovka Brno
6
FC Zbrojovka Brno 67%
$99.52
$14.64
Research grade
NeutralFC Zbrojovka Brno at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors SK Sigma Olomouc 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | FC Zbrojovka Brnoavg 56¢ | $38.66 | $41.69 | +$3.02 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | SK Sigma Olomoucavg 25¢ | $19 | $37.62 | +$18.62 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | FC Zbrojovka Brnoavg 78¢ | $17.94 | $11.62 | -$6.33 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | FC Zbrojovka Brnoavg 75¢ | $4.68 | $3.93 | -$0.75 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | SK Sigma Olomoucavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $2.48 | +$1.23 | 48% 2404-2633 (5037) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | FC Zbrojovka Brnoavg 77¢ | $3.35 | $2.2 | -$1.15 | 50% 33443-33004 (66447) |
Invested
$38.66
Value
$41.69
PnL
+$3.02
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Invested
$19
Value
$37.62
PnL
+$18.62
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$17.94
Value
$11.62
PnL
-$6.33
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.75
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$1.23
Record
48%
2404-2633 (5037)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$1.15
Record
50%
33443-33004 (66447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.