FK Mladá Boleslav vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 0.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $54 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$54.24
$9.5
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 97.5¢ | $29.25 | $29.25 | +$0 | 63% 1197-693 (1890) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $13.48 | $13.48 | +$0.01 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $2.01 | $11.5 | +$9.49 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.