Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Mladá Boleslav win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,631

Combined PnL+$99.79

No5 traders

Total Value$281.28

Total Shares3,023

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 62.4¢	$959.49	$919.22	-$40.27	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
RN1CTR	Noavg 50.6¢	$1.4K	$278.48	$-1.1K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 44.8¢	$93.23	$206.96	+$113.73	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 73.8¢	$154.97	$162.49	+$7.52	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 84.3¢	$102.59	$121.14	+$18.55	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$69	$66	-$3	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 72.6¢	$8.87	$12.16	+$3.28	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$1.67	$1.65	-$0.03	52% 7499-6786 (14285)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$29.78	$1.17	-$28.61	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 80.2¢	$161.84	$1.11	-$160.73	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$24.57	$0.46	-$24.11	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$7.85	$0.05	-$7.8	54% 6424-5410 (11834)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$959.49

Value

$919.22

PnL

-$40.27

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,393.69

Value

$278.48

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$93.23

Value

$206.96

PnL

+$113.73

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$154.97

Value

$162.49

PnL

+$7.52

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$102.59

Value

$121.14

PnL

+$18.55

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$69

Value

$66

PnL

-$3

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.87

Value

$12.16

PnL

+$3.28

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$29.78

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$28.61

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$161.84

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$160.73

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$24.57

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$24.11

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$7.85

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.8

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.