FK Jablonec vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 56¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
1 arb excluded
$10.3K
-$104.93
47.9¢ → 55.5¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Underavg 47.8¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | +$183.61 | 48% 147-160 (307) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 51% 1683-1647 (3330) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 51.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$167.6 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 52.6¢ | $593.25 | $388.01 | -$205.24 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.6¢ | $493.25 | $239.01 | -$254.24 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $100 | $149 | +$49 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 52.7¢ | $158 | $66 | -$92 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $69.68 | $40.2 | -$29.48 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 52.7¢ | $9.49 | $9.91 | +$0.42 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $3 | $3.12 | +$0.12 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
Invested
$5,288.57
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$183.61
Record
48%
147-160 (307)
us391CTRInvested
$2,584.19
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1683-1647 (3330)
Invested
$2,037.35
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$167.6
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$593.25
Value
$388.01
PnL
-$205.24
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$158
Value
$66
PnL
-$92
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$69.68
Value
$40.2
PnL
-$29.48
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.49
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.12
PnL
+$0.12
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.