Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

1. FC Slovácko vs. FK Teplice: O/U 2.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$29.59

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 46¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$872.55

Total Shares1,763

Combined PnL+$49.46

Over3 traders

Total Value$422.68

Total Shares692

Combined PnL-$19.88

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$816.34	$865.13	+$48.79	55% 1738-1429 (3167)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 54.1¢	$417.75	$399.48	-$18.27	49% 19132-19523 (38655)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 54¢	$21.02	$19.66	-$1.36	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$6.75	$7.42	+$0.67	48% 2366-2607 (4973)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 54¢	$3.78	$3.54	-$0.25	53% 4456-4025 (8481)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Under

Invested

$816.34

Value

$865.13

PnL

+$48.79

Record

55%

1738-1429 (3167)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$417.75

Value

$399.48

PnL

-$18.27

Record

49%

19132-19523 (38655)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$21.02

Value

$19.66

PnL

-$1.36

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.75

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.67

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.