Will Bohemians Praha 1905 win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
$12.98
78¢ → 87.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 78.1¢ | $3.8K | $4.2K | +$375.92 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $947.98 | $590.66 | -$357.32 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $213.97 | $155.77 | -$58.19 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86.1¢ | $80.05 | $80.45 | +$0.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24¢ | $133.92 | $75.33 | -$58.59 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $44.04 | $42.28 | -$1.76 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $17.56 | $15.41 | -$2.15 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $6.88 | $7.6 | +$0.71 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $8.36 | $5.94 | -$2.42 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.25 | $0.31 | +$0.01 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
Invested
$3,776.87
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$375.92
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
RN1CTRInvested
$947.98
Value
$590.66
PnL
-$357.32
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$213.97
Value
$155.77
PnL
-$58.19
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$44.04
Value
$42.28
PnL
-$1.76
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$17.56
Value
$15.41
PnL
-$2.15
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.88
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$5.94
PnL
-$2.42
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.31
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.