Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 57¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$12.6K
-$297.7
50.8¢ → 57¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Noavg 50.8¢ | $7.0K | $7.1K | +$99.21 | 49% 167-175 (342) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $4.3K | $4.0K | -$261.18 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $998.39 | -$90.68 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $269.29 | $240.76 | -$28.53 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $202.4 | $180 | -$17.9 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $10.2 | $11.66 | +$1.46 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $11.34 | $11.09 | -$0.13 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 49.4¢ | $5.12 | $5.21 | +$0.09 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $4.4 | -$0.05 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
Invested
$7,048.43
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$99.21
Record
49%
167-175 (342)
Invested
$4,265.94
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$261.18
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$1,089.06
Value
$998.39
PnL
-$90.68
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$269.29
Value
$240.76
PnL
-$28.53
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$202.4
Value
$180
PnL
-$17.9
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$11.66
PnL
+$1.46
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
Invested
$11.34
Value
$11.09
PnL
-$0.13
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.21
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.