Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 14¢ · $30 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
$29.86
$16.85
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 48.5¢ | $125.95 | $26.65 | +$21.94 | 34% 19212-36836 (56048) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $4.23 | $1.57 | -$2.66 | 42% 2335-3178 (5513) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.4¢ | $33.66 | $1.35 | -$2.35 | 72% 13834-5358 (19192) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.4¢ | $0.26 | $0.18 | -$0.08 | 16% 383-1960 (2343) |
Invested
$125.95
Value
$26.65
PnL
+$21.94
Record
34%
19212-36836 (56048)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$2.66
Record
42%
2335-3178 (5513)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$33.66
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$2.35
Record
72%
13834-5358 (19192)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.08
Record
16%
383-1960 (2343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.