Will CZ post 80-99 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $219 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$219.02
-$0
94¢ → 96.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $76.14 | $76.14 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $70.5 | $70.5 | +$0 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $28.2 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $25.38 | $25.38 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $18.8 | -$0 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$76.14
Value
$76.14
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$70.5
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$28.2
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$25.38
Value
$25.38
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.