Will CZ post 60-79 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $228 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$228.34
$0
98¢ → 75¢
-23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $79.38 | $79.38 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $73.5 | $73.5 | +$0 | 22% 78-279 (357) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.4 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $26.46 | $26.46 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.6 | +$0 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$79.38
Value
$79.38
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$73.5
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
78-279 (357)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$26.46
Value
$26.46
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.