Will CZ post 40-59 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$113.84
$2.31
78.7¢ → 83¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $56.25 | $58.35 | +$2.1 | 26% 868-2503 (3371) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $18.36 | $18.67 | +$0.31 | 53% 6040-5408 (11448) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $15.56 | -$4.04 | 26% 116-337 (453) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $15.56 | +$0.36 | 25% 90-272 (362) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.33 | $5.7 | +$3.58 | 35% 512-942 (1454) |
Invested
$56.25
Value
$58.35
PnL
+$2.1
Record
26%
868-2503 (3371)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.67
PnL
+$0.31
Record
53%
6040-5408 (11448)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$15.56
PnL
-$4.04
Record
26%
116-337 (453)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$15.56
PnL
+$0.36
Record
25%
90-272 (362)
Invested
$3.33
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$3.58
Record
35%
512-942 (1454)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.