Will CZ post 180-199 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $303 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$302.69
$0.07
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $135.85 | $135.85 | +$0 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.9 | $74.93 | +$0.03 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 27% 937-2515 (3452) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $21.97 | $21.98 | +$0.01 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.98 | +$0.02 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.97 | $19.98 | +$0.01 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
LucerysInvested
$135.85
Value
$135.85
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$74.9
Value
$74.93
PnL
+$0.03
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
937-2515 (3452)
Invested
$21.97
Value
$21.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.