Will CZ post 100-119 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $233 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$232.77
$0.95
99¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $80.19 | $80.68 | +$0.49 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $74.25 | $74.7 | +$0.45 | 40% 1447-2158 (3605) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.88 | +$0.18 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $26.73 | $26.89 | +$0.16 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.92 | +$0.12 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $1.15 | $0.7 | -$0.45 | — 1-18 (19) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$80.19
Value
$80.68
PnL
+$0.49
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$74.25
Value
$74.7
PnL
+$0.45
Record
40%
1447-2158 (3605)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.88
PnL
+$0.18
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$26.73
Value
$26.89
PnL
+$0.16
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.45
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.