Will CZ post 0-19 posts from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$209.7
-$3.4
91.5¢ → 83.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $73.71 | $72.9 | -$0.81 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $68.55 | $67.5 | -$1.05 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $27.6 | $27 | -$0.6 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $24.84 | $24.3 | -$0.54 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $18 | -$0.4 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$73.71
Value
$72.9
PnL
-$0.81
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$68.55
Value
$67.5
PnL
-$1.05
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.6
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$24.84
Value
$24.3
PnL
-$0.54
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.