Will CZ post 80-99 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$275.43
-$3.25
99.7¢ → 98.7¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $158.72 | $157.13 | -$1.59 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.67 | $39.27 | -$0.4 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $37.83 | $37.51 | -$0.32 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.61 | -$0.3 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $11.76 | $11.65 | -$0.12 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.68 | $0.19 | -$0.48 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.1 | $0.07 | -$0.04 | 48% 307-339 (646) |
LucerysInvested
$158.72
Value
$157.13
PnL
-$1.59
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$39.67
Value
$39.27
PnL
-$0.4
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$37.83
Value
$37.51
PnL
-$0.32
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.61
PnL
-$0.3
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$11.65
PnL
-$0.12
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$0.48
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
307-339 (646)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.