Will CZ post 60-79 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$208.23
-$3.54
96.6¢ → 95.3¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 96.9¢ | $154.24 | $151.8 | -$2.44 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $36.12 | $36.23 | +$0.11 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.6 | $19.27 | -$0.33 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.35 | $0.7 | -$0.65 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $0.23 | -$0.22 | 40% 657-967 (1624) |
LucerysInvested
$154.24
Value
$151.8
PnL
-$2.44
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$36.12
Value
$36.23
PnL
+$0.11
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.27
PnL
-$0.33
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.65
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$0.22
Record
40%
657-967 (1624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.