Will CZ post 40-59 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 70¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$119.26
-$16.31
80.6¢ → 70¢
-13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $59.51 | $51.85 | -$7.66 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $31.83 | $27.65 | -$4.18 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $24 | $20.85 | -$3.15 | 17% 54-273 (327) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $9.44 | $8.2 | -$1.24 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $7.52 | $5.56 | -$1.96 | 28% 840-2134 (2974) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.7 | $4.58 | +$1.88 | 25% 1201-3514 (4715) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$59.51
Value
$51.85
PnL
-$7.66
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$31.83
Value
$27.65
PnL
-$4.18
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$24
Value
$20.85
PnL
-$3.15
Record
17%
54-273 (327)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$1.24
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$5.56
PnL
-$1.96
Record
28%
840-2134 (2974)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$4.58
PnL
+$1.88
Record
25%
1201-3514 (4715)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.