Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 55¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
$137.88
$40.34
Research grade
AvoidNo at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $55.62 | $82.64 | +$27.02 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $10.5 | $16.5 | +$6 | 8% 32-370 (402) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 36.3¢ | $10.79 | $16.33 | +$5.54 | 50% 4565-4478 (9043) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $11 | $9 | -$2 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $5.25 | $6.75 | +$1.5 | 26% 1205-3516 (4721) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $1.92 | $4.4 | +$2.48 | 10% 36-325 (361) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.46 | $2.26 | -$0.2 | 42% 256-347 (603) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$55.62
Value
$82.64
PnL
+$27.02
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$6
Record
8%
32-370 (402)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.79
Value
$16.33
PnL
+$5.54
Record
50%
4565-4478 (9043)
Invested
$11
Value
$9
PnL
-$2
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$1.5
Record
26%
1205-3516 (4721)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$2.48
Record
10%
36-325 (361)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.26
PnL
-$0.2
Record
42%
256-347 (603)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.