Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 47¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$104.33
$17.79
Research grade
AvoidNo at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $55.62 | $64.61 | +$8.99 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $10.5 | $12.9 | +$2.4 | 13% 55-372 (427) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.3¢ | $10.79 | $12.77 | +$1.98 | 51% 4602-4505 (9107) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $5.25 | $7.95 | +$2.7 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $1.92 | $3.44 | +$1.52 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.46 | $2.66 | +$0.2 | 46% 320-373 (693) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$55.62
Value
$64.61
PnL
+$8.99
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$2.4
Record
13%
55-372 (427)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.79
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$1.98
Record
51%
4602-4505 (9107)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$2.7
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$3.44
PnL
+$1.52
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0.2
Record
46%
320-373 (693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.