Will CZ post 180-199 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $248 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$248.09
-$0.45
99.9¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $159 | $158.72 | -$0.28 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.75 | $39.67 | -$0.08 | 44% 1096-1382 (2478) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.91 | -$0.03 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11.78 | $11.76 | -$0.01 | 79% 428-113 (541) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $7.98 | -$0.02 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.08 | $0.05 | -$0.03 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
LucerysInvested
$159
Value
$158.72
PnL
-$0.28
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$39.67
PnL
-$0.08
Record
44%
1096-1382 (2478)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$11.76
PnL
-$0.01
Record
79%
428-113 (541)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.03
Record
26%
1234-3522 (4756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.