Will CZ post 160-179 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$125.14

Combined PnL

-$0.03

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$125.13

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.09

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$43.56	$43.58	+$0.02	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.75	$39.77	+$0.02	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	26% 858-2483 (3341)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.79	$11.79	+$0.01	79% 346-94 (440)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.08	$0.01	-$0.07	26% 1230-3522 (4752)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.02	42% 372-507 (879)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.56

Value

$43.58

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$39.75

Value

$39.77

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

26%

858-2483 (3341)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.79

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$0.01

Record

79%

346-94 (440)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.07

Record

26%

1230-3522 (4752)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

372-507 (879)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.