Will CZ post 100-119 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$81.95
-$0.34
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $37.96 | $37.98 | +$0.02 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $34.75 | $34.76 | +$0.02 | 44% 1088-1381 (2469) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.19 | $9.2 | +$0 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $0.39 | $0.01 | -$0.38 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.