Valparaiso Beacons vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (W)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (78%) · Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at 100¢ · $461 held · ended Nov 13

Valparaiso Beacons<1¢Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Consensus Traders

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 78%

Total Value

$461.44

Combined PnL

$18.57

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 99.5¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valparaiso Beacons1%

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons7 traders

Total Value$395.99

Total Shares399

Combined PnL+$91.58

Valparaiso Beacons2 traders

Total Value$64.57

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$73.01

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons — 78%Valparaiso Beacons — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 59¢	$59	$99.5	+$40.5	47% 214-243 (457)
38 38791873984189<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 84.2¢	$83.36	$98.52	+$15.15	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 17.8¢	$136.38	$63.97	-$72.41	45% 214-259 (473)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 58¢	$32.71	$56.12	+$23.41	32% 291-613 (904)
RN1<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 92.6¢	$46.96	$50.46	+$3.5	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SM smithagent<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 90¢	$45	$49.75	+$4.75	43% 507-662 (1169)
FO forecastication4<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 88¢	$29.04	$31.68	+$2.64	31% 134-299 (433)
PA Pan9X<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 77.7¢	$8.33	$9.96	+$1.63	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Valparaiso Beaconsavg 20¢	$1.2	$0.6	-$0.6	50% 118-117 (235)

thirdt1me<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$59

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$40.5

Record

47%

214-243 (457)

38791873984189<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$83.36

Value

$98.52

PnL

+$15.15

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

Forecastication2CTR

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$136.38

Value

$63.97

PnL

-$72.41

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

SlickRick123<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$32.71

Value

$56.12

PnL

+$23.41

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

RN1<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$46.96

Value

$50.46

PnL

+$3.5

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

smithagent<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$45

Value

$49.75

PnL

+$4.75

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

forecastication4<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$29.04

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$2.64

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

Pan9X<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$8.33

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$1.63

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Valparaiso Beacons

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

118-117 (235)

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.