Providence Friars vs. Boston College Eagles (W)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Boston College Eagles (36%) · Boston College Eagles at 64¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Providence Friars36¢Boston College Eagles64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Boston College Eagles

Consensus Traders

Boston College Eagles 36%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$89.87

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 64¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBoston College Eagles at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boston College Eagles

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Providence Friars36%

Boston College Eagles64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boston College Eagles4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,681

Combined PnL+$127.35

Providence Friars7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,598

Combined PnL-$37.49

Boston College Eagles — 36%Providence Friars — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Boston College Eaglesavg 54.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$157.52	38% 550-887 (1437)
38 38791873984189CTR	Providence Friarsavg 44.3¢	$442.38	$443.89	+$1.51	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
RN1CTR	Providence Friarsavg 48.5¢	$326.13	$275.11	-$51.01	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
CI cigarettesCTR	Providence Friarsavg 42.2¢	$237.36	$227.8	-$9.56	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
poshposh	Boston College Eaglesavg 89¢	$154.78	$137.32	-$17.46	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Providence Friarsavg 42¢	$57.96	$56.58	-$1.38	34% 370-708 (1078)
BA Bayupati<$100	Boston College Eaglesavg 56¢	$70.84	$53.13	-$17.71	18% 32-146 (178)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Providence Friarsavg 48¢	$48	$44.5	-$3.5	48% 281-299 (580)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Providence Friarsavg 11¢	$11.77	$38.52	+$26.75	44% 661-825 (1486)
dips.<$100	Boston College Eaglesavg 93¢	$44.77	$18.62	+$5	47% 973-1108 (2081)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Providence Friarsavg 45.4¢	$14.56	$14.27	-$0.29	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$1,308.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$157.52

Record

38%

550-887 (1437)

38791873984189CTR

Providence Friars

Invested

$442.38

Value

$443.89

PnL

+$1.51

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

RN1CTR

Providence Friars

Invested

$326.13

Value

$275.11

PnL

-$51.01

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

cigarettesCTR

Providence Friars

Invested

$237.36

Value

$227.8

PnL

-$9.56

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

poshposh

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$154.78

Value

$137.32

PnL

-$17.46

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$57.96

Value

$56.58

PnL

-$1.38

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

Bayupati<$100

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$70.84

Value

$53.13

PnL

-$17.71

Record

18%

32-146 (178)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$48

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

smithagentCTR<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$11.77

Value

$38.52

PnL

+$26.75

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

dips.<$100

Boston College Eagles

Invested

$44.77

Value

$18.62

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$14.56

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$0.29

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

AvoidBoston College Eagles at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Boston College Eagles

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boston College Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.