Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Appalachian State Mountaineers, while the market favors Northwestern Wildcats (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (W)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Appalachian State Mountaineers (67%) · Appalachian State Mountaineers at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Northwestern Wildcats>99¢Appalachian State Mountaineers<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Consensus Traders

Appalachian State Mountaineers 67%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$813.79

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAppalachian State Mountaineers at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Appalachian State Mountaineers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Northwestern Wildcats 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Northwestern Wildcats100%

Appalachian State Mountaineers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northwestern Wildcats3 traders

Total Value$662.52

Total Shares682

Combined PnL+$270.76

Appalachian State Mountaineers6 traders

Total Value$953.61

Total Shares3,809

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Northwestern Wildcats — 33%Appalachian State Mountaineers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Northwestern Wildcatsavg 56¢	$356.03	$617.21	+$261.18	39% 593-921 (1514)
NO NotJumpCTR	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	51% 917-874 (1791)
RN1CTR	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 42.6¢	$243.5	$305.58	+$62.08	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
38 38791873984189CTR	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$67.37	$-1.1K	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 44.1¢	$37.89	$46.01	+$8.12	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Northwestern Wildcatsavg 44.3¢	$24.03	$32.31	+$8.28	83% 802-165 (967)
SM smithagent<$100	Northwestern Wildcatsavg 90¢	$11.7	$12.99	+$1.29	45% 717-880 (1597)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 34.2¢	$87.86	$6.43	-$81.43	48% 294-314 (608)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Appalachian State Mountaineersavg 44¢	$2.64	$3.21	+$0.57	35% 399-742 (1141)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Northwestern Wildcats

Invested

$356.03

Value

$617.21

PnL

+$261.18

Record

39%

593-921 (1514)

NotJumpCTR

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

RN1CTR

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$243.5

Value

$305.58

PnL

+$62.08

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

38791873984189CTR

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$1,141.26

Value

$67.37

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$37.89

Value

$46.01

PnL

+$8.12

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Northwestern Wildcats

Invested

$24.03

Value

$32.31

PnL

+$8.28

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

smithagent<$100

Northwestern Wildcats

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$1.29

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$87.86

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$81.43

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.57

Record

35%

399-742 (1141)

Research grade

AvoidAppalachian State Mountaineers at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Appalachian State Mountaineers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Northwestern Wildcats 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Appalachian State Mountaineers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.